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Vague currently serves on the Penn Medicine Board of Trustees and is on the corporate boards of Heartland Payment Systems of Princeton, New Jersey, Think Direct Marketing of Tampa, Florida and GoodCents Corporation of Atlanta, Georgia.
Relying on the findings of a team of economists, credit expert Richard Vague argues that the Great Depression of the 1930s, the economic collapse of the past decade, and many other sharp downturns around the world were all preceded by a spike in privately held debt.
Vague presents an algorithm for predicting crises and argues that China may soon face disaster. Since American debt levels have not declined significantly since 2008, Vague believes that economic growth in the United States will suffer unless banks embrace a policy of debt restructuring.
All informed citizens, but especially those interested in economic policy and history, will want to contend with Vague’s distressing arguments and evidence.
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A Financial Crisis can be Predicted by a Rapid Increase of Private Debt
Dell’Ariccia et al (2012), drawing on a large sample of AEs and EMDEs, concluded that…